Hurricane Maria Sep 18

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Hurricane Maria Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Maria.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft
measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an
estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has
been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall
cycles and land interaction.

No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the
extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica
within the next hour or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

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